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Props board

NHL Player Props Today: Shots on Goal, Goal Scorer and Points Stats

NHL player props come down to two numbers: how often a player shoots, and how often those shots go in. This board lists the league's busiest shooters and best scorers per game, with a baseline chance of three or more shots and of scoring, built from official NHL stats.

Data updated October 12, 2026 at 10:50 AM ETBy the HockeyBetting.us desk

NHL props board: shots and goals.

2025-26 regular season, minimum 40 games. Baselines use a Poisson model on the per-game rate; they are estimates, not lines.

#	Player	Shots / game	3+ shots (est.)	4+ shots (est.)	Shooting %	TOI / game
1	Nathan MacKinnonC · COL · 80 GP · 350 shots	4.38	81%fair -433	64%fair -176	15.1%	22:16
2	Auston MatthewsC · TOR · 60 GP · 227 shots	3.78	73%fair -267	52%fair -109	11.9%	20:48
3	Cutter GauthierL · ANA · 76 GP · 285 shots	3.75	72%fair -261	52%fair -107	14.4%	17:15
4	Jack HughesTonightC · NJD · 61 GP · 228 shots	3.74	72%fair -259	51%fair -106	11.8%	21:19
5	Connor McDavidC · EDM · 82 GP · 306 shots	3.73	72%fair -257	51%fair -105	15.7%	22:59
6	Brady TkachukTonightL · OTT · 60 GP · 221 shots	3.68	71%fair -246	50%fair -101	10.0%	16:58
7	Jason RobertsonL · DAL · 82 GP · 294 shots	3.59	70%fair -228	48%fair +107	15.3%	20:15
8	Jack EichelTonightC · VGK · 74 GP · 260 shots	3.51	68%fair -213	47%fair +115	10.4%	21:12
9	Macklin CelebriniC · SJS · 82 GP · 287 shots	3.50	68%fair -212	46%fair +116	15.7%	21:19
10	Alex DeBrincatR · DET · 82 GP · 287 shots	3.50	68%fair -212	46%fair +116	14.3%	18:30
11	Timo MeierTonightR · NJD · 77 GP · 269 shots	3.49	68%fair -210	46%fair +117	8.9%	18:31
12	Zach WerenskiD · CBJ · 75 GP · 260 shots	3.47	67%fair -206	46%fair +119	8.5%	26:37
13	Kirill KaprizovTonightL · MIN · 78 GP · 269 shots	3.45	67%fair -203	45%fair +121	16.7%	22:09
14	David PastrnakR · BOS · 77 GP · 261 shots	3.39	66%fair -193	44%fair +128	11.1%	20:39
15	Tage ThompsonTonightC · BUF · 81 GP · 272 shots	3.36	65%fair -188	43%fair +131	14.7%	19:15
16	Matt BoldyTonightL · MIN · 76 GP · 254 shots	3.34	65%fair -185	43%fair +133	16.5%	20:34
17	Kyle ConnorL · WPG · 82 GP · 274 shots	3.34	65%fair -185	43%fair +133	14.2%	21:30
18	Bo HorvatC · NYI · 68 GP · 226 shots	3.32	64%fair -181	42%fair +136	13.7%	20:46
19	Connor BedardC · CHI · 69 GP · 226 shots	3.28	64%fair -175	42%fair +141	13.3%	20:52
20	Cole CaufieldR · MTL · 81 GP · 258 shots	3.19	62%fair -162	40%fair +153	19.8%	18:11
21	Seth JarvisR · CAR · 71 GP · 224 shots	3.15	61%fair -156	39%fair +159	14.3%	18:53
22	Dylan LarkinC · DET · 74 GP · 229 shots	3.09	60%fair -148	37%fair +168	14.8%	20:11
23	Dylan GuentherR · UTA · 79 GP · 242 shots	3.06	59%fair -144	37%fair +173	16.5%	17:24
24	Nikita KucherovR · TBL · 76 GP · 231 shots	3.04	59%fair -141	36%fair +176	19.0%	20:20
25	Brandon HagelL · TBL · 71 GP · 214 shots	3.01	58%fair -138	36%fair +182	16.8%	19:46
26	Filip ForsbergL · NSH · 82 GP · 246 shots	3.00	58%fair -136	35%fair +183	16.3%	18:53
27	Alex OvechkinL · WSH · 82 GP · 244 shots	2.98	57%fair -134	35%fair +187	13.1%	17:27
28	Darren RaddyshD · TBL · 73 GP · 212 shots	2.90	55%fair -124	33%fair +203	10.4%	22:42
29	Kirill MarchenkoR · CBJ · 76 GP · 218 shots	2.87	55%fair -121	32%fair +209	12.4%	18:57
30	Artemi PanarinL · LAK · 78 GP · 224 shots	2.87	55%fair -121	32%fair +209	12.5%	20:51

#	Player	Goals / game	Anytime goal (est.)	Points / game	PP goals	Shots / game
1	Nathan MacKinnonC · COL · 80 GP · 53 goals	0.662	48%fair +107	1.59	11	4.38
2	Cole CaufieldR · MTL · 81 GP · 51 goals	0.630	47%fair +114	1.09	11	3.19
3	Connor McDavidC · EDM · 82 GP · 48 goals	0.585	44%fair +126	1.68	13	3.73
4	Nikita KucherovR · TBL · 76 GP · 44 goals	0.579	44%fair +128	1.71	8	3.04
5	Kirill KaprizovTonightL · MIN · 78 GP · 45 goals	0.577	44%fair +128	1.14	19	3.45
6	Matt BoldyTonightL · MIN · 76 GP · 42 goals	0.553	42%fair +135	1.12	11	3.34
7	Macklin CelebriniC · SJS · 82 GP · 45 goals	0.549	42%fair +137	1.40	8	3.50
8	Jason RobertsonL · DAL · 82 GP · 45 goals	0.549	42%fair +137	1.17	15	3.59
9	Wyatt JohnstonC · DAL · 82 GP · 45 goals	0.549	42%fair +137	1.05	27	2.51
10	Cutter GauthierL · ANA · 76 GP · 41 goals	0.539	42%fair +140	0.91	11	3.75
11	Leon DraisaitlC · EDM · 65 GP · 35 goals	0.538	42%fair +140	1.49	16	2.86
12	Zach HymanL · EDM · 58 GP · 31 goals	0.534	41%fair +142	0.90	10	2.74
13	Brad MarchandTonightL · FLA · 52 GP · 27 goals	0.519	40%fair +147	1.04	6	2.65
14	Steven StamkosC · NSH · 82 GP · 42 goals	0.512	40%fair +150	0.81	14	2.51
15	Brandon HagelL · TBL · 71 GP · 36 goals	0.507	40%fair +151	1.04	5	3.01
16	Dylan GuentherR · UTA · 79 GP · 40 goals	0.506	40%fair +152	0.92	9	3.06
17	Alex DeBrincatR · DET · 82 GP · 41 goals	0.500	39%fair +154	1.04	15	3.50
18	Tage ThompsonTonightC · BUF · 81 GP · 40 goals	0.494	39%fair +157	1.00	6	3.36
19	Filip ForsbergL · NSH · 82 GP · 40 goals	0.488	39%fair +159	0.92	11	3.00
20	Martin NecasC · COL · 78 GP · 38 goals	0.487	39%fair +159	1.28	9	2.64
21	Morgan GeekieC · BOS · 81 GP · 39 goals	0.481	38%fair +162	0.84	12	2.23
22	Kyle ConnorL · WPG · 82 GP · 39 goals	0.476	38%fair +164	1.12	5	3.34
23	Jake GuentzelC · TBL · 81 GP · 38 goals	0.469	37%fair +167	1.09	8	2.72
24	Mark StoneTonightR · VGK · 60 GP · 28 goals	0.467	37%fair +168	1.22	9	2.17
25	William NylanderR · TOR · 65 GP · 30 goals	0.462	37%fair +170	1.22	7	2.40
26	Dylan LarkinC · DET · 74 GP · 34 goals	0.459	37%fair +172	0.91	14	3.09
27	Bo HorvatC · NYI · 68 GP · 31 goals	0.456	37%fair +173	0.84	7	3.32
28	Sam ReinhartTonightC · FLA · 64 GP · 29 goals	0.453	36%fair +175	0.95	11	2.59
29	Seth JarvisR · CAR · 71 GP · 32 goals	0.451	36%fair +175	0.93	5	3.15
30	Pavel DorofeyevTonightR · VGK · 82 GP · 37 goals	0.451	36%fair +175	0.78	20	2.80

“Fair” is the American price that matches the estimate with no margin. A sportsbook price shorter than fair means you pay the margin plus whatever the estimate misses.

Shots on goal props, explained

Of all NHL player props, shots on goal is the steadiest. A shot only counts if it would have gone in without the goalie: blocked shots and shots that miss the net are not shots on goal. The usual lines are 2.5 for regular shooters and 3.5 for the league's volume players. Nathan MacKinnon led the league last season at 4.38 shots per game, which on a simple Poisson model clears 3.5 shots about 64% of the time.

The rate matters more than the total. A player who averages 3.2 shots per game in 18 minutes will see that number move with his ice time and his power play role. Before you look at a line, check whether he is still on the top unit, whether his team is on a back-to-back, and who is in goal for the other side. Our Shot Lab shows where each team gets its shots, and the goalie board shows the netminder he will face.

4.38shots per game, league leader

81%his 3+ shot baseline

15.5%average shooting % of the leaders

Anytime goal scorer props

The NHL anytime goal scorer bet wins if the player scores at any point, overtime included at most books. Goals are rare even for stars, so most anytime prices sit at plus money. Turn the per-game goal rate into a chance of scoring at least once and you get the baseline in the table: last season's top scorer, Nathan MacKinnon, scored 0.66 goals per game, about a 48% chance per game on that rate.

Shooting percentage is the trap. A forward shooting 20% over a month is almost always going to come back toward his career level, while his shot rate is far more stable. When an NHL anytime goal scorer price looks generous, check whether the player's shot volume supports it or whether a hot finishing streak is doing the work.

First goal scorer is a different bet

First goal scorer pays far more because only one player can win it, and a goal by anyone else, including the other team, loses. Prices are long for a reason: even the best scorer in the league scores first in only a small share of his games.

Reading NHL player props today

Illustration: a peregrine falcon skater driving the puck forward in a burst of ice spray — Shot volume is the habit; the goal is the bonus.

NHL player props for the next slate start with the "next slate only" filter. Use it to keep the players whose teams play next. For NHL props today, ask three questions about each one. Is his role the same, with the same linemates and power play time? Who is in goal for the opponent, and is that goalie rested? And how many shots does the opponent usually give up? Teams that allow a lot of shots raise every shooter's line; teams that block and collapse lower it.

Check today's lineups before you bet, since NHL props are voided only if the player does not dress. Tonight's slate, with puck drop in Eastern time and both teams' form, is on the tonight's games page. For team strength over the season, see the power rankings. NHL props reward that kind of homework more than game lines do, because books post hundreds of them and cannot shade each one as carefully as a moneyline.

Early leaders this season by total shots: Tage Thompson (BUF, 29 in 5), Kyle Connor (WPG, 27 in 5), Brandon Hagel (TBL, 26 in 5), Sebastian Aho (CAR, 24 in 7), Nick Schmaltz (UTA, 24 in 6). Small samples, but useful to spot new roles.

Points, assists and power play props

Points props pay on goals plus assists, so they suit playmakers who do not shoot much. Last season Nikita Kucherov led the league at 1.71 points per game. On a Poisson baseline that is about a 82% chance of at least one point in a game and 51% of two or more. The usual lines are 0.5 points for most regulars and 1.5 for the top of the league.

Assists are noisier than goals, because a second assist depends on what two teammates do. Power play time adds a layer: 18% of Nikita Kucherov's goals came with the extra skater, and a player on the top unit can pile up points against a team that takes penalties. If a coach moves him to the second unit, his points line should drop more than his shots line. Power play points props, offered at some books, make that dependence the whole bet.

Two or more goals is the stretch version of the anytime bet. Even the top scorer's rate gives only about a 14% chance of a multi-goal night, which is why those prices run long.

Hit rates, juice and two-way margins

Many prop tools lead with a hit rate: the player cleared 2.5 shots in seven of his last ten. It sounds like evidence, but ten games is a tiny sample. Take a shooter who truly averages 3.0 shots a game. His baseline for three or more is 58%, so over ten games you would expect about 5.8 hits, give or take 1.6 from luck alone. Seven of ten and four of ten can both come from the same player.

Then there is the price. When both sides of a shots on goal prop sit at -110, each side implies 52.4%, and the two add up to more than 100%. The extra is the book's hold, about 4.5% of every dollar bet on that market. Your baseline has to beat the implied chance after that margin, not just clear 50%. Blocked shots props work the same way but are even more about role: they follow ice time on the penalty kill and the opponent's habit of shooting from the point.

How props settle on official stats

Props settle on the official NHL game stats, which are sometimes corrected after the game when the league reviews a shot or a goal credit. Most sportsbooks grade on the stats as they stand when the game ends, but a few re-grade after official changes. Shootout attempts never count as shots or goals for a player prop.

Combining props into a parlay, especially from the same game, multiplies the margin you pay on each leg. If you build one, put the numbers through the parlay calculator first and compare the combined price with what each leg needs on its own. For the underlying odds math, the odds converter turns any prop price into an implied probability.

Questions & answers

Questions,
answered.

Short answers to the questions readers ask most.

What are NHL player props?

Player props are bets on one player's numbers in one game rather than on the result. The common NHL markets are shots on goal (usually 2.5 or 3.5), anytime goal scorer, points (0.5 or 1.5), assists, and saves for goalies. They settle on the official league stats for that game.

Does overtime count for NHL player props?

At most US sportsbooks, yes: shots, goals and points in overtime count. Shootout goals do not count as player goals and shootout attempts are not shots on goal. Check the house rules, because a few books settle some props on regulation only.

What happens to a prop if the player does not play?

If the player does not dress for the game, the prop is usually voided and the stake returned. If he plays even one shift and gets hurt, the bet generally stands. Rules on this differ, so read the sportsbook's player prop terms.

How do you estimate the 3+ shots and anytime goal chances?

We take the player's season rate per game and apply a Poisson model, a standard way to estimate how often a count reaches a number when events are spread across a game. It ignores the opponent, ice time changes and power play role, so treat it as a baseline to compare with the price, not as a prediction.

Do empty-net goals count for player props?

Yes. An empty-net goal is an official goal, so it counts for the scorer's anytime and goals props and for the players credited with assists on points props. It does not count against the goalie's saves, because no shot reached him.

Are shots on goal props easier than goal props?

They are steadier. Shooters take many shots a game, so their counts swing less than goals. Goals are rare: even the league's best scorer last season, Nathan MacKinnon, scored 0.66 goals per game, which is about a 48% chance of scoring in a given game on that rate.